Scenario description
Rainfall scenarios
| Tab. 1: Overview of rainfall scenarios used in the study. | ||
|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Description | Rainfall amount |
| Baseline | Most intense period of the event in Feb. 2019 | 19 – 64 mm in 5.5 h |
| Moderate | Baseline + 20 % climate change effect | 23 – 77 mm in 5.5 h |
| Intense | Amman Airport station of the event in Feb. 2019 | 136 mm in 27 h |
| Catastrophic | ~ Annual rainfall amount in one event | 300 mm in 27 h |
Land use land cover change
Hydraulic assessment of rainfall scenarios
Maps of the focus area Downtown Amman with a) inundation map of the baseline simulation, water levels in blue, and the differences maps to the baseline in purple of b) moderate scenario (20 % more rainfall than baseline), c) intense scenario (maximum station for the whole catchment, 136 mm in 27 h), d) catastrophic scenario (300 mm in 27 h), the UNESCO world heritage site, Roman theater is marked as a green star.
Hydrological assessment of rainfall scenarios and land use land cover changes
With the hydrological model HEC-HMS simulated rainfall scenarios (baseline, moderate, in-tense, and catastrophic) and respectively with the LULC datasets of the past – 1968, present – 2021 and future – 2050, calculated differences to baseline scenario (5.5 h rainfall event and present LULC) in percent change of peak flow at the catchment outlet.
Further description can be found in Hohmann et al. 2024: Hydrological approaches to assess flash flood risks in data scarce and climate-change affected regions like Jordan Band 45.24 der FGhW Schriftenreihe Forum für Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung. 2024 ISBN: 978-3-96862-725-0 DOI: 10.14617/for.hydrol.wasbew.45.24 "45.24_TdH2024.pdf" p.25 ff