edit ms

analysis/paper/paper.Rmd

@@ -711,7 +711,7 @@ flextable(df_scenario_info) %>%
 
 The various global supply-side scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP2-1.9, GEA-efficiency, IEA ETP B2DS) [@riahi_shared_2017] [@iiasa_gea_2012] [@grubler_low_2018] would see the European household energy footprint falling from the 2015 level of `r energy_total_hh` EJ to around 21-31 EJ by 2050, equivalent to a per adult equivalent reduction from a 2015 average of `r energy_pae_mean` GJ to around 64-94 GJ. The differences in final energy in 2050 in the scenarios reflect different model assumptions about the rate of expansion of renewable energy, efficiency improvements and conservation, and CCS capacity. All these scenarios rely on CCS, which is still a fairly speculative technology, and we therefore interpret them as ranges for the upper limits of 1.5°C compatible energy supply [@riahi_shared_2017] [@iiasa_gea_2012].
 
-It is more difficult to determine a lower limit for the minimum amount of energy use required for a decent standard of living. Such a lower limit depends strongly on the prevalent socio-cultural idea of what constitutes a decent standard of living, and, perhaps even more strongly, on the physical infrastructure available to deliver this. The two global demand-side scenarios, Low Energy Demand (LED) [@grubler_low_2018] and Decent Living Energy (DLE) [@millward-hopkins_providing_2020], that attempt to define such a limit conclude that, in principle, a very low energy footprint, between around 15-53 household GJ per adult equivalent, could be sufficient. However, these scenarios rely on socio-technological transformations on a scale that, especially at the lower end, far exceed the current political discourse on the subject. These scenarios are 1.5°C compatible without resorting to any CCS but they all implicitly (LED) [@grubler_low_2018] or explicitly (DLE) [@millward-hopkins_providing_2020] assume near complete equality of consumption across the population. To put these low energy numbers in perspective, the average household energy footprint in our sample was `r energy_pae_mean` GJ per adult equivalent in 2015, about a factor 5 above the high estimate. Households in the bottom European expenditure decile, many falling within the EUROSTAT definition of severe material deprivation [@eurostat_living_2020], still had an energy footprint of `r energy_pae_bottom_decile` GJ per adult equivalent in 2015 (roughly 80 GJ/capita), a factor of 2.5 above the high estimate. 
+It is more difficult to determine a lower limit for the minimum amount of energy use required for a decent standard of living. Such a lower limit depends strongly on the prevalent socio-cultural idea of what constitutes a decent standard of living, and, perhaps even more strongly, on the physical infrastructure available to deliver this. The two global demand-side scenarios, Low Energy Demand (LED) [@grubler_low_2018] and Decent Living Energy (DLE) [@millward-hopkins_providing_2020], that attempt to define such a limit conclude that, in principle, a very low energy footprint, between around 15-53 household GJ per adult equivalent, could be sufficient. These low energy use estimates are then scaled up to calculate the level of total global energy supply required to meet them for the global population. However, these scenarios rely on socio-technological transformations on a scale that, especially at the lower end, far exceed the current political discourse on the subject. They scenarios are 1.5°C compatible without resorting to any CCS but they all implicitly (LED) [@grubler_low_2018] or explicitly (DLE) [@millward-hopkins_providing_2020] assume near complete equality of consumption across the population. To put these low energy numbers in perspective, the average household energy footprint in our sample was `r energy_pae_mean` GJ per adult equivalent in 2015, about a factor 5 above the high estimate. Households in the bottom European expenditure decile, many falling within the EUROSTAT definition of severe material deprivation [@eurostat_living_2020], still had an energy footprint of `r energy_pae_bottom_decile` GJ per adult equivalent in 2015 (roughly 80 GJ/capita), a factor of 2.5 above the high estimate. 
 
 Based on these two constraints, the upper limit on the supply side and the lower limit on the demand side, it is possible to make a generalized estimate of how much inequality in the distribution of energy consumption is numerically possible, if at the same time global warming is to be kept below 1.5°C and a decent standard of living for all is to be made possible. Before we can make this evaluation, we must take into account the existing large differences in the technological efficiency of energy provision (Figure 2).