-
Marianna Rottoli authoredMarianna Rottoli authored
preloop.gms 52.95 KiB
*** | (C) 2006-2019 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
*** | authors, and contributors see CITATION.cff file. This file is part
*** | of REMIND and licensed under AGPL-3.0-or-later. Under Section 7 of
*** | AGPL-3.0, you are granted additional permissions described in the
*** | REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
*** | Contact: remind@pik-potsdam.de
*** SOF ./modules/29_CES_parameters/calibrate/preloop.gms
$OFForder
option pm_cesdata:4:3:1;
;
display "check sets production function 29", ces_29, in_29, ppf_29, ipf_29,
ppf_beyondcalib_29, ipf_beyond_29;
display "check starting pm_cesdata", pm_cesdata;
file logfile /""/;
logfile.lw = 0;
logfile.nw = 15;
logfile.nd = 9;
*** Check if new structure flag is not set but should be
$ifthen.check_structure %c_CES_calibration_new_structure% == "0"
Execute_Load 'input' ces2_29=cesOut2cesIn;
sm_tmp = 0;
loop ( ces2_29(out,in)$( NOT cesOut2cesIn2(out,in) ), sm_tmp = 1);
loop (cesOut2cesIn2(out,in)$( NOT ces2_29(out,in) ), sm_tmp = 1);
if (sm_tmp,
abort "CES structure does not match. Enable c_CES_calibration_new_structure";
);
Execute_Load 'input' regi_29_load=regi;
sm_tmp = 0;
loop ( regi_29_load(regi2)$( NOT regi(regi2) ), sm_tmp = 1);
loop (regi(regi2)$( NOT regi_29_load(regi2) ), sm_tmp = 1);
if (sm_tmp,
abort "Regional structure does not match. Enable c_CES_calibration_new_structure";
);
$endif.check_structure
*** Determine if prices should be derived or loaded
$set c_CES_calibration_prices "derive"
$ifthen.new_structure %c_CES_calibration_new_structure% == "1"
$ifthen.first_iteration %c_CES_calibration_iteration% == "1"
$set c_CES_calibration_prices "load"
$endif.first_iteration
$endif.new_structure
*** In the first iteration with a changed CES structure, load ppf prices
$ifthen.get_prices %c_CES_calibration_prices% == "load"
*** Set CES prices that are not loaded from a file to default value.
*** Will be slower than calculated values, but can get the calibration started.
$ifthen.default_prices NOT %cm_CES_calibration_default_prices% == "0"
pm_cesdata(t,regi,all_in,"price") = %cm_CES_calibration_default_prices%;
$endif.default_prices
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price")$((ppf(in) OR ppf_29(in))
AND p29_cesdata_price(t,regi,in)) = p29_cesdata_price(t,regi,in);
pm_cesdata(t,regi,ipf_29,"price") = 1;
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") $ in_complements(in) = 1;
*** If not first iteration or known CES structure, compute ppf prices
$else.get_prices
*** Compute ppf prices from CES derivatives of previous run
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),ces_29(out,in))$( p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,in) gt 0 )
= p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"xi")
* p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"eff")
* p29_effGr(t,regi,in)
* (p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,out)$( NOT ipf_putty(out))
+ p29_cesIOdelta_load(t,regi,out)$( ipf_putty(out))
)
** (1 - p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,out,"rho"))
* ( p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"eff")
* p29_effGr(t,regi,in)
* (p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,in)$( NOT ipf_putty(out))
+ p29_cesIOdelta_load(t,regi,in)$( ipf_putty(out))
)
)
** (p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,out,"rho") - 1);
;
*** Propagate price down the CES tree
loop ((cesLevel2cesIO(counter,in),ces_29(in,in2),ces2_29(in2,in3)),
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),"inco",in3)
= p29_CESderivative(t,regi,"inco",in2)
* p29_CESderivative(t,regi,in2,in3);
);
*** Prices of intermediate production factors are all 1, except on the level above the perfect substitutes if they are ppf_29
loop ( cesOut2cesIn(in2,in) $ ( NOT ( ppf_29(in) AND in_complements(in))),
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),out,ipf_29(in2))$( p29_CESderivative(t,regi,out,in2) ) = 1;
);
*** Prices of perfect substitutes factors are all 1
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),out,ppf_29(in2))$( p29_CESderivative(t,regi,out,in2) AND in_complements(in2) ) = 1;
*** Price of inco is 1, too
p29_cesdata_load(t,regi_dyn29(regi),"inco","price") = 1; !! unit price
*** Transfer prices
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi), in, "price") =
p29_CESderivative(t,regi,"inco",in);
option
p29_CESderivative:3:3:1
pm_cesdata:3:3:1
;
*** The calibration of elasticities of substitution takes
*** much longer to converge if it starts from a high elasticity of
*** substitution. To avoid this situation, the price of the capital stock
*** is increased
if (%c_CES_calibration_iteration% eq 1,
loop (cesOut2cesIn(out,in)$(pm_cesdata_sigma("2015",out) eq -1 AND ppfKap(in) AND in_29(in)),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") = pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") *1.3;
);
);
display "derivatives", p29_CESderivative, p29_effGr, p29_cesIO_load;
*** Write prices to file and abort, to use them in calibration with differing
*** CES structure
$ifthen.write_prices %c_CES_calibration_write_prices% == "1"
file file_pm_cesdata_price /"pm_cesdata_price"/;
file_pm_cesdata_price.lw = 0;
file_pm_cesdata_price.nw = 20;
file_pm_cesdata_price.nd = 15;
put file_pm_cesdata_price;
loop ((ttot,regi_dyn29(regi),ppf_29(in)),
if (ttot.val ge 2005 AND p29_cesdata_load(ttot,regi,in,"price") gt 0,
put p29_cesdata_load.tn(ttot,regi,in,"price"), " = ";
put p29_cesdata_load(ttot,regi,in,"price"), ";" /;
);
);
putclose file_pm_cesdata_price;
abort "wrote pm_cesdata_price as by c_CES_calibration_write_prices setting" ;
$endif.write_prices
$endif.get_prices
*** Check if all ppf prices are > 0
if (smin((t,regi_dyn29(regi),ppf_29(in)), pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price")) le 0,
put logfile;
loop ((t,regi_dyn29(regi),ppf_29(in))$( pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") le 0 ),
put pm_cesdata.tn(t,regi,in,"price"), " = ", pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
);
abort "Some ppf prices are <= 0. Check ./modules/29_CES_parameters/calibrate/input/pm_cesdata_price_XXX.inc!";
);
if (%c_CES_calibration_iteration% eq 1, !! first CES calibration iteration
put file_CES_calibration;
loop ((t,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(( ppf_29(in) OR sameas(in,"inco") OR ppf_beyondcalib_29(in) OR sameas(in,"enhb"))),
if (( NOT in_putty(in)) AND (ppf_29(in) OR sameas(in,"inco")),
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "quantity", in.tl;
put p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,in) /;
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "price", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
if (p29_cesdata_load("2005",regi,in,"eff") AND p29_effGr(t,regi,in),
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "total efficiency", in.tl;
put ( sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"xi")
**(1/p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,out,"rho")
)
* ( p29_cesdata_load("2005",regi,in,"eff")
* p29_effGr(t,regi,in)
)
)
) /;
);
);
if (( in_putty(in)) AND (ppf_29(in) ),
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "quantity_putty", in.tl;
put p29_cesIOdelta_load(t,regi,in) /;
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "price_putty", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
if (p29_cesdata_load("2005",regi,in,"eff") AND p29_effGr(t,regi,in),
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "total efficiency putty", in.tl;
put ( sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"xi")
**(1/p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,out,"rho")
)
* ( p29_cesdata_load("2005",regi,in,"eff") * p29_effGr(t,regi,in)
)
)
) /;
);
);
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "efficiency", in.tl;
put (p29_cesdata_load("2005",regi,in,"eff") * p29_effGr(t,regi,in)) /;
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "efficiency growth", in.tl;
put p29_effGr(t,regi,in) /;
put "%c_expname%", "origin", t.tl, regi.tl, "xi", in.tl;
put p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"xi") /;
);
loop ((ttot,regi_dyn29(regi),te_29_report),
put "%c_expname%", "origin", ttot.tl, regi.tl, "vm_deltaCap", te_29_report.tl;
put sum(rlf,vm_deltacap.L(ttot,regi,te_29_report,rlf)) /;
);
putclose file_CES_calibration;
);
option pm_cesdata:4:3:1;
display "loaded", pm_cesdata;
sm_tmp = 0;
loop (( t_29(t),regi_dyn29(regi),ppf_29(in))$ (pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") le 0),
put logfile;
put pm_cesdata.tn(t,regi,in,"price"), " = ", pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
sm_tmp = 1;
);
if (sm_tmp eq 1,
abort "some prices are negative. See log file";
);
display "before price smoothing", cesOut2cesIn_below, pm_cesdata;
*** Smooth 2005 prices
pm_cesdata("2005",regi_dyn29(regi),in_29,"price")$(ppf_29(in_29) )
= ( pm_cesdata("2010",regi,in_29,"price") * 2
+ pm_cesdata("2015",regi,in_29,"price")
)
/ 3;
*** Smooth non 2005 prices with moving average
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in_29,"price") $ (( not ((ord(t) le 1) or (ord(t) eq card(t)))) AND (ppf_29(in_29) ))
=
( pm_cesdata(t -1 ,regi,in_29,"price")/8
+ pm_cesdata(t,regi,in_29,"price")
+ pm_cesdata(t +1 ,regi,in_29,"price")/8
) / 1.25 ;
p29_beta(regi_dyn29(regi),in_29)$(ppf_29(in_29))
= ( ((2020 - 2000) / 5)
* sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ),
ttot.val
* pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,in_29,"price")
)
- ( sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ), ttot.val)
* sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ),
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,in_29,"price")
)
)
)
/ ( ((2020 - 2000) / 5)
* sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ), sqr(ttot.val))
- sqr(sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ), ttot.val))
);
p29_alpha(regi_dyn29(regi),in_29)$(ppf_29(in_29))
= ( sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ),
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,in_29,"price")
)
- p29_beta(regi,in_29)
* sum(ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val le 2020 ), ttot.val)
)
/ ((2020 - 2000) / 5);
Display p29_alpha, p29_beta;
*** for entrp_frgt_lo
*** pass on to pm_cesdata and ensure the resulting price is positive
loop (ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val lt 2020),
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi_dyn29(regi),"entrp_frgt_lo","price")
= max(
1e-3,
( pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,"entrp_frgt_lo","price")
+ p29_alpha(regi,"entrp_frgt_lo") + p29_beta(regi,"entrp_frgt_lo") * ttot.val
)
/ 2
);
);
*** Set minimal price for all periods
loop (ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005),
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi_dyn29(regi),"entrp_frgt_lo","price")
= max(
1e-3,
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,"entrp_frgt_lo","price")
);
);
display "after entrp_frgt_lo smoothening", pm_cesdata;
*** for all other modes
*** pass on to pm_cesdata and ensure the resulting price is positive
loop (ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND ttot.val lt 2020),
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi_dyn29(regi),in_29,"price")$(ppf_29(in_29) AND (NOT sameas(in_29, "entrp_frgt_lo")))
= max(
1e-2,
( pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,in_29,"price")
+ p29_alpha(regi,in_29) + p29_beta(regi,in_29) * ttot.val
)
/ 2
);
);
*** Set minimal price for all periods loop (ttot$( ttot.val ge 2005),
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi_dyn29(regi),in_29,"price")$(ppf_29(in_29) AND (NOT sameas(in_29, "entrp_frgt_lo")))
= max(
1e-2,
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,in_29,"price")
);
);
display "after all but entrp_frgt_lo smoothening", pm_cesdata;
*** Smooth prices for the whole period for elements in or below the putty-clay structure
***Problem if there are several ppfIO_putty below each other, prices are then smoothed twice
loop ((t_29, cesOut2cesIn_below(out,in))$ppfIO_putty(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"price")
=
sum(t2_29 $ (t2_29.val ge t_29.val),
(1-pm_delta_kap(regi,out)) ** (t2_29.val - t_29.val)
* pm_cesdata(t2_29,regi,in,"price")
)
/
sum(t2_29 $ (t2_29.val ge t_29.val),
(1-pm_delta_kap(regi,out)) ** (t2_29.val - t_29.val)
)
;
);
display "after price smoothing", cesOut2cesIn_below, pm_cesdata;
*** Finalize calibration by ensuring the consistency of pm_cesdata ***
display "start consistency", pm_cesdata;
*** All effGr, are set to one, so that we can focus on efficiencies
*** we will split xi and eff evolutions later and pass it on to effGr
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, in_29, "effGr") = 1;
*** First, using the prices and quantities of the ppfEn, the prices of ipf
*** we compute thanks to the Euler equation the quantities of the ipf.
***This is done in two steps:first (A) for everything below ppf_putty, so that we can compute
***the first pm_cesdata_putty by taking into account the growth of pm_cesdata
***second (B) we compute quantities for everything up to the last CES level inco.(lab,kap,en)
***(A)
loop ( (ipf_29(out), cesRev2cesIO(counter,out)) $ (in_below_putty(out) OR ppf_putty(out)),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity") = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
);
display "compute putty" , pm_cesdata;
v29_cesdata_putty.lo(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$putty_compute_in(in) = 1e-6;
v29_cesdata_putty.L(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$putty_compute_in(in) = pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity") / 30;
v29_cesdata.l(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$putty_compute_in(in) = pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity");
v29_cesdata.lo(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in) = 0.90 * v29_cesdata.l(t_29,regi,in);
v29_cesdata.up(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in) = 1.10 * v29_cesdata.l(t_29,regi,in);
v29_cesdata.fx(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(putty_compute_in(in) AND (sameAs(t_29,"2010") OR sameAs(t_29,"2005"))) = pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity");
loop ((regi_dyn29(regi),cesOut2cesIn(out,in),cesOut2cesIn2(out,in2))$(
putty_compute_in(in) AND putty_compute_in(in2) ),
v29_ratioTotalPutty.l(t_29,regi,out,in,in2) = 1; v29_ratioTotalPutty.up(t_29,regi,out,in,in2) = 100;
);
model putty_paths /
q29_pathConstraint
q29_ratioTotalPutty
q29_putty_obj
q29_esubsConstraint
/;
solve putty_paths minimizing v29_putty_obj using nlp;
if ( NOT (( putty_paths.solvestat eq 1 AND (putty_paths.modelstat eq 1 OR putty_paths.modelstat eq 2))
OR (putty_paths.solvestat eq 4 AND putty_paths.modelstat eq 7)),
abort "model putty_paths is infeasible";
);
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"quantity") $ v29_cesdata_putty.L(t_29,regi,in) = v29_cesdata_putty.L(t_29,regi,in);
loop ( cesOut2cesIn_below(out,in)$putty_compute_in(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"quantity") = v29_cesdata.L(t_29,regi,out)/pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,out,"quantity") * pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity");
);
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"quantity")$putty_compute_in(in) = v29_cesdata.L(t_29,regi,in);
$ontext
loop ((t,nests_putty(out,in))$ ( t0(t) AND putty_compute_in(in)),
pm_ratio_putty_quant(regi_dyn29(regi),out) = pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity")
;
);
loop (nests_putty(out,in),
pm_ratio_putty_quant(regi_dyn29(regi),in) = pm_ratio_putty_quant(regi,out)$pm_ratio_putty_quant(regi,out)
+ pm_delta_kap(regi,in)$( NOT pm_ratio_putty_quant(regi,out))
;
);
display "test ratio", pm_ratio_putty_quant;
$offtext
if (%c_CES_calibration_iteration% eq 1, !! first CES calibration iteration
put file_CES_calibration;
loop ((t,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(( ppf_29(in) OR sameas(in,"inco") OR ppf_beyondcalib_29(in) OR sameas(in,"enhb")) ),
if (( NOT in_putty(in)) AND (ppf_29(in) OR sameas(in,"inco")),
put "%c_expname%", "target", t.tl, regi.tl, "quantity", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
if (( in_putty(in)) AND (ppf_29(in) ),
put "%c_expname%", "target", t.tl, regi.tl, "quantity_putty", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
if (ppf_beyondcalib_29(in),
put "%c_expname%", "target", "2005", regi.tl, "quantity", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata("2005",regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
);
loop ((t_29hist(t), regi_dyn29(regi), ppf_beyondcalib_29(in)),
put "%c_expname%", "target", t.tl, regi.tl, "quantity", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
putclose file_CES_calibration;
);
***(B)
loop ((t_29,cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf_29(out))$( NOT (sameas(out,"inco") OR in_below_putty(out) OR ppf_putty(out)) ),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")$( NOT ipf_putty(out)) = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")$( ipf_putty(out)) = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (( t0(t_29)) AND ppfIO_putty(out))
= !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty. For the first period, we assume that pm_cesdata stays constant
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
/ pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out)
;
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (( NOT t0(t_29)) AND ppfIO_putty(out))
= !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
pm_cesdata(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t_29)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t_29,regi_dyn29,out) * pm_cesdata_putty(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t_29,regi_dyn29,out) * pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
;
);
*** Ensure that the share of labour is higher than 20% for historical periods
*** Otherwise rescale prices and produce a message in the logfile
loop ((t_29hist(t),regi_dyn29),
sm_tmp = sum (in$ (sameAs(in, "kap") OR sameAs(in,"en")),
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
* pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,in,"price")
)
;
if ( sm_tmp gt (0.80 * pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity")),
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,ppf_29(in),"price")$( NOT (sameAs(in, "lab") OR in_complements(in)))
= pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,in,"price")
* (0.80 * pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity"))
/ sm_tmp;
loop ( cesOut2cesIn(in2,in) $ ( ppf_29(in) AND in_complements(in)),
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,in2,"price")
= pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,in2,"price")
* (0.80 * pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity"))
/ sm_tmp;
);
put logfile;
put "---" /;
put "WARNING: NON GAMS error: rescaled prices because xi lab lt 20% in ", regi_dyn29.tl, ", ", t.tl /;
put "ratio (en + kap) / inco = ", sm_tmp / pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity") /;
put "---" /;
putclose;
);
);
!! Repeat previous steps with new prices
loop ( (ipf_29(out), cesRev2cesIO(counter,out)) $ (in_below_putty(out) OR ppf_putty(out)),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity") = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
);
solve putty_paths minimizing v29_putty_obj using nlp;
if ( NOT (( putty_paths.solvestat eq 1 AND (putty_paths.modelstat eq 1 OR putty_paths.modelstat eq 2))
OR (putty_paths.solvestat eq 4 AND putty_paths.modelstat eq 7)),
abort "model putty_paths is infeasible";
);
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"quantity") $ v29_cesdata_putty.L(t_29,regi,in) = v29_cesdata_putty.L(t_29,regi,in);
loop ( cesOut2cesIn_below(out,in)$putty_compute_in(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"quantity") = v29_cesdata.L(t_29,regi,out)/pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,out,"quantity") * pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity");
);
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"quantity")$putty_compute_in(in) = v29_cesdata.L(t_29,regi,in);
loop ((t_29,cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf_29(out))$( NOT (sameas(out,"inco") OR in_below_putty(out) OR ppf_putty(out)) ),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")$( NOT ipf_putty(out)) = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")$( ipf_putty(out)) = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (( t0(t_29)) AND ppfIO_putty(out))
= !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty. For the first period, we assume that pm_cesdata stays constant
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
/ pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out)
;
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (( NOT t0(t_29)) AND ppfIO_putty(out))
= !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
pm_cesdata(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t_29)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t_29,regi_dyn29,out) * pm_cesdata_putty(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t_29,regi_dyn29,out) * pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
;
);
*** Check if some quantities are negative.
if (smin((t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(in_putty(in)), pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi,in,"quantity")) lt 0,
put logfile;
loop ((t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(in_putty(in) AND pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi,in,"quantity") lt 0 ),
put pm_cesdata_putty.tn(t_29,regi,in,"quantity"), " = ", pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
abort "Some pm_cesdata_putty are <= 0. Check logfile!";
);
*** Then, we ensure that these prices correspond to the derivatives, because the Euler equation
*** holds for derivatives. Using prices makes only sense if prices equal derivatives.
loop ((cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf_29(out),ces_29(out,in))$(NOT sameas(out,"inco")),
!! loop ((cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ces_29(out,in))$( (NOT sameas(out,"inco"))
if (NOT ipf_putty(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, in,"xi")
= pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"eff")
= pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"); );
if (ipf_putty(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, in,"xi")
= pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"price")
* pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"eff")
= pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")
/ pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity");
);
);
display "after change up to en consistency", pm_cesdata;
*** Then, we consider the bottom level of the CES tree, where capital and labor have specific restrictions
*** Capital works as for the other ppfen, Labour will be the adjustment variable to meet inco
*** xi will not be equal to the income share of capital (from equation price=derivative)
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, "kap","xi")
= pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"kap","price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"kap","quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"kap","eff")
= pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco", "quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"kap", "quantity");
display "after change cap eff consistency", pm_cesdata, pm_cesdata_putty;
*** Second, adjust the price of labour, so that, whithout changing the price of
*** energy, the Euler equation holds.
pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,"lab","price")
= ( pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity")
- sum(cesOut2cesIn("inco",in)$( NOT sameas(in,"lab") ),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
)
)
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"lab","quantity")
;
*** Fourth, adjust eff and xi of labour and energy so that the price matches the derivative.
loop ((ces_29("inco",in))$( Not sameas(in, "kap")),
pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,in,"xi") = pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,in,"price")*pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity");
pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,in,"eff") = pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29, regi_dyn29,in,"quantity");
);
*** Assert xi gt 0
sm_tmp = 0;
loop ((t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in_29)$( pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in_29,"xi") le 0
AND pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in_29,"quantity") gt 0
AND NOT sameas(in_29,"inco") ),
sm_tmp = 1;
);
if (sm_tmp,
put logfile;
loop ((t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in_29)$( pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in_29,"xi") le 0
AND pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in_29,"quantity") gt 0
AND NOT sameas(in_29,"inco") ),
put pm_cesdata.tn(t_29,regi,in_29,"xi"), " = ";
put pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in_29,"xi") /;
loop (cesOut2cesIn(out,in_29),
put @3, pm_cesdata.tn(t_29,regi,out,"quantity"), " = ",
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,out,"quantity") /;
loop (cesOut2cesIn2(out,in), put @5, pm_cesdata.tn(t_29,regi,in,"price"), " = ",
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"price") /;
put @5, pm_cesdata.tn(t_29,regi,in,"quantity"), " = ",
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
);
);
execute_unload "pm_cesdata.gdx", pm_cesdata, cesOut2cesIn;
abort "assertion xi gt 0 failed, see .log file for details";
);
display " end consistency", pm_cesdata;
*** End of the part ensuring consistency given the ppfEn prices and quantities, the ipf prices,
*** the labor quantities, and the capital efficiency growth.
***_____________________________ START OF BEYOND CALIB _________________________________________________
*** Adapt the 2005 efficiencies of the CES items outside the calibration
*** so that it matches the quantities given exogenously.
if (card(ppf_beyondcalib_29) >= 1,
Display " before computing xi in beyond", pm_cesdata;
$ifthen.prices_beyond not %c_CES_calibration_prices% == "load" !! if "load", prices have already been loaded
*** Compute ppf prices from CES derivatives of previous run
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),cesOut2cesIn(out,in))$( p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,in) gt 0 )
=
p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"xi")
* p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"eff")
* p29_effGr(t,regi,in)
* (p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,out)$( NOT ipf_putty(out))
+ p29_cesIOdelta_load(t,regi,out)$( ipf_putty(out))
)
** (1 - p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,out,"rho"))
* ( p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,in,"eff")
* p29_effGr(t,regi,in)
* (p29_cesIO_load(t,regi,in)$( NOT ipf_putty(out))
+ p29_cesIOdelta_load(t,regi,in)$( ipf_putty(out))
)
)
** (p29_cesdata_load(t,regi,out,"rho") - 1);
;
*** Propagate price down the CES tree
loop ((cesLevel2cesIO(counter,in),cesOut2cesIn(in,in2),cesOut2cesIn2(in2,in3)),
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),"inco",in3)
= p29_CESderivative(t,regi,"inco",in2)
* p29_CESderivative(t,regi,in2,in3);
);
*** Prices of intermediate production factors are all 1, except on the level above the perfect substitutes if they are ppf_29
loop ( cesOut2cesIn(in2,in) $ ( NOT ( ppf_beyondcalib_29(in) AND in_complements(in))),
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),out,ipf_beyond_29_excludeRoot(in2))$( p29_CESderivative(t,regi,out,in2) ) = 1;
);
*** Prices of perfect substitutes factors are all 1
p29_CESderivative(t,regi_dyn29(regi),out,ppf_beyondcalib_29(in2))$( p29_CESderivative(t,regi,out,in2) AND in_complements(in2) ) = 1;
display "check p29_CESderivative", p29_CESderivative;
loop ((cesOut2cesIn(out, in_beyond_calib_29_excludeRoot(in)), regi_dyn29(regi)),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price")
= p29_CESderivative(t, regi, out,in));
pm_cesdata(t_29hist(t),regi_dyn29(regi),in,"price")$(in_beyond_calib_29_excludeRoot(in))
= 0.25 * pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price")
+ 0.75 * sum ( t_29hist2(t2), pm_cesdata(t2,regi,in,"price"))
/ card (t_29hist2)
;
$else.prices_beyond
pm_cesdata(t,regi,ipf_beyond_29,"price") = 1;
*** complements are not treated in the first iteration
$endif.prices_beyond
*** The calibration of elasticities of substitution takes
*** much longer to converge if it starts from a high elasticity of
*** substitution. To avoid this situation, the price of the capital stock
*** is increased
if (%c_CES_calibration_iteration% eq 1,
loop (cesOut2cesIn(out,in)$(pm_cesdata_sigma("2015",out) eq -1 AND ppfKap(in) AND in_beyond_calib_29_excludeRoot(in)),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") = pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") *5;
);
);
*** Report prices based on the inco marginal, before they are scaled.
put capital_unit;
loop (regi_dyn29(regi),
loop ((out,in,in2,t)$((pm_cesdata_sigma(t,out) eq -1)
AND ( cesOut2cesIn(out,in) AND cesOut2cesIn2(out,in2))
AND ( ppfKap(in) AND ( NOT ppfKap(in2)))
AND (sameAs(t, "2015") OR sameAs(t, "2050") OR sameAs(t, "2100"))) ,
$ifthen.repEsubs %c_CES_calibration_prices% == "load"
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "price_Noscale", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "price_Noscale", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"price") /;
$else.repEsubs
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "price_Noscale", regi.tl, p29_CESderivative(t,regi,"inco",in) /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "price_Noscale", regi.tl, p29_CESderivative(t,regi,"inco",in2) /;
$endif.repEsubs
);
);
putclose;
*** First, we compute the quantity for the root deriving from the ppf quantities and prices
*** and we adjust the ppf prices so that it matches the root quantity
*** The current formulation does not support putty in beyond and complements
loop ((out, t,regi_dyn29(regi))$( root_beyond_calib_29(out) AND t_29hist(t)),
sm_tmp = sum (cesOut2cesIn_below(out,in)$ ppf(in),
pm_cesdata(t, regi, in, "price") * pm_cesdata(t, regi, in, "quantity"))
/ pm_cesdata(t,regi,out, "quantity");
if (sm_tmp eq 0,
put logfile;
loop (cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
if ( NOT ipf_putty(out),
put pm_cesdata.tn(t,regi,in,"quantity"), " = ";
put pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") /; );
if ( ipf_putty(out),
put pm_cesdata_putty.tn(t,regi,in,"quantity"), " = ";
put pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
put pm_cesdata.tn(t,regi,in,"price"), " = ";
put pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
);
abort "assertion sm_tmp is 0, see .log file for details";
);
pm_cesdata(t, regi, in, "price")$ (cesOut2cesIn_below(out,in) AND ppf(in) AND t_29hist(t))
= pm_cesdata(t, regi, in, "price") / sm_tmp;
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity")$ (cesOut2cesIn_below(out,in) AND ppf(in) AND t_29scen(t))
= pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") / sm_tmp;
);
loop ((t_29,cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf_beyond_29_excludeRoot(out))$(NOT sameas(out,"inco") ),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")$( NOT ipf_putty(out)) = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")$( ipf_putty(out)) = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (ppfIO_putty(out) AND t0(t_29)) = !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
/ pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out);
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (ppf_putty(out) AND t0(t_29)) = !!compute the delta for factors that are ipf in the CES and ppf in the putty
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
- pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out));
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (( NOT t0(t_29)) AND ppfIO_putty(out) ) !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
=
pm_cesdata(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t_29)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t_29,regi_dyn29,out) * pm_cesdata_putty(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t_29,regi_dyn29,out) * pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
;
pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")$ (( NOT t0(t_29)) AND ppf_putty(out) )
= !!compute the delta for factors that are ipf in the CES and ppf in the putty
1 /pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t_29,regi_dyn29,out)
* (pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
- pm_cesdata(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t_29)
- pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t_29,regi_dyn29,out)* pm_cesdata_putty(t_29-1,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity")
)
;
);
$ontext
loop ((cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf_beyond_29_excludeRoot(out)),
pm_cesdata(t0,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity") = sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in), pm_cesdata(t0,regi_dyn29,in, "price")
* pm_cesdata(t0,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity"));
);
$offtext
loop ((cesOut2cesIn(out,in),t_29)$(in_beyond_calib_29_excludeRoot(in) AND t_29hist(t_29)),
if ( NOT ipf_putty(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, in,"xi") = pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"price") * pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"eff") = pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity");
);
if ( ipf_putty(out),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, in,"xi") = pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"price")
* pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out,"quantity");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"eff") = pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,out, "quantity")
/ pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in, "quantity");
);
);
);
***_____________________________ END OF BEYOND CALIB ________________________________________
***_________ COMPUTE ELASTICITIES OF SUBSTITUTION _________
*** Compute the rho parameter from the elasticity of substitution
pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,ipf(out),"rho")$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND pm_cesdata_sigma(ttot,out) AND ( NOT pm_cesdata_sigma(ttot,out) eq -1)) !! Do not compute it if sigma = 0, because these should be estimated
= 1 - (1 / pm_cesdata_sigma(ttot,out));
*** pm_cesdata(ttot,regi,ipf(out),"rho")$( ttot.val ge 2005 AND NOT pm_cesdata_sigma(ttot,out))
*** = 0.5;
*** Check whether all sigma = INF correspond to complementary factors
*** while it seems contradictory, the model currently only supports
*** complementary factors which add up to yield their output (therefore the perfect substituability).
*** OUT = IN1 + IN2 + IN3 +...
*** The complementarity is ensured by the production constraints on the relations between IN1, IN2, etc
loop (cesOut2cesIn(out,in) $ (pm_cesdata_sigma("2015",out) eq INF ),
if ( NOT in_complements(in),
abort "the model only supports perfect substituability for complementary factors. Please read the comments in calibration/preloop.gms"
);
);
*** For the estimation of Esubs: set the CES out to 1 if the CES inputs are in the data
loop (cesOut2cesIn(out,in) $ (pm_cesdata_sigma("2015",out) eq -1),
p29_capitalUnitProjections(all_regi,out,index_Nr) $p29_capitalUnitProjections(all_regi,in,index_Nr) = 1;
);
model esubs /
q29_outputtech,
q29_esub_obj,
/;
v29_outputtech.L(regi_dyn29,ipf(out),index_Nr) = 1;
v29_outputtech.lo(regi_dyn29,ipf(out),index_Nr) = 0;
v29_rho.L(regi,out)$( pm_cesdata_sigma("2015",out) eq -1) = 0.5;
v29_rho.up(regi,out) = 0.8; !! corresponds to sigma = 5
v29_rho.lo(regi,out) = -9; !! corresponds to sigma = 0.1
loop ((cesOut2cesIn(out,in), t_29hist_last(t))$((pm_cesdata_sigma(t,out) eq -1) AND ppfKap(in)),
p29_output_estimation(regi_dyn29(regi),out) = ( pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"quantity") $ ( NOT ipf_putty(out))
+ pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,out,"quantity") $ ( ipf_putty(out))
)
/ ( pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") $ ( NOT ipf_putty(out))
+ pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity") $ ( ipf_putty(out))
)
* p29_capitalUnitProjections(regi,in,"0") !! index = 0, is the typical technology
);
solve esubs minimizing v29_esub_err using nlp;
if ( NOT ( esubs.solvestat eq 1 AND (esubs.modelstat eq 1 OR esubs.modelstat eq 2)),abort "model esubs is infeasible";
);
display "esubs results", p29_capitalUnitProjections;
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"rho")$( pm_cesdata_sigma(t,in) eq -1) = v29_rho.L(regi,in);
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"rho")$( pm_cesdata_sigma(t,in) eq -1) =
1 - (1 - pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho"))
/ ( 1 + min(max((pm_ttot_val(t) - 2015)/(2050 -2015),0),p29_esubGrowth)) !! lambda = 1 in 2015 and 2 in 2050;
;
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"rho")$( pm_cesdata_sigma(t,in) eq -1 AND pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho") lt 0) = min(pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho"), 1 - 1/0.8); !! If complementary factors, sigma should be below 0.8
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"rho")$( pm_cesdata_sigma(t,in) eq -1 AND pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho") ge 0) = max(pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho"), 1 - 1/1.2); !! If substitution factors, sigma should be above 1.2
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"rho")$( pm_cesdata_sigma(t,in) eq -1 ) = max ( v29_rho.lo(regi,in), pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho"));
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"rho")$( pm_cesdata_sigma(t,in) eq -1 ) = min ( v29_rho.up(regi,in), pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"rho"));
***_________ END COMPUTATION OF ELASTICITIES OF SUBSTITUTION _________
*** Finally, we take the evolution of xi and eff, and pass it on to effGr.
*** (a) for items in ces_29
loop ((t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),ces_29(out,in),t0),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"effgr")$( pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity") gt 0 )
= (pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"eff") / pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"eff"))
* (pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"xi") / pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"xi"))
** (1 / pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,out,"rho"));
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"eff") = pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"eff");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"xi") = pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"xi");
);
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),"inco","effgr") = 1;
*** (b) for items beyond calibration, whose growth beyond t_29hist is treated below
loop ((t_29, t0, cesOut2cesIn(out,in), regi_dyn29(regi)) $ (ces_beyondcalib_29(out,in) AND t_29hist(t_29)),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"effgr")$( pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"quantity") gt 0 )
= (pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"eff") / pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"eff"))
* (pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"xi") / pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"xi"))
** (1 / pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,out,"rho"));
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"eff") = pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"eff");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in,"xi") = pm_cesdata(t0,regi,in,"xi");
);
loop ((t0, in_beyond_calib_29_excludeRoot),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29, in, "eff") = pm_cesdata(t0,regi_dyn29, in, "eff");
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"xi") = pm_cesdata(t0,regi_dyn29, in, "xi");
);
*** For beyond calib: treatment of effGr after historical periods
*** First, initialize effGr to the last value of the historical period
loop ( (t_29hist_last(t2),regi_dyn29(regi),cesOut2cesIn(out,in))$(in_beyond_calib_29_excludeRoot(in) AND ( NOT ue_fe_kap_29(out))),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi,in, "effGr")$ ( pm_ttot_val(t_29) gt pm_ttot_val(t2))
= pm_cesdata(t2,regi,in, "effGr");
);
*** Second, change efficiencies for the variables which have exogenous pathways in case UE = f(FE,K)
loop ((t_29hist_last(t2),cesOut2cesIn(out,in))$(ue_fe_kap_29(out)),
pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29(regi),in, "effGr")$( NOT t_29hist(t_29))
= pm_cesdata(t2,regi,in, "effGr")
* p29_efficiency_growth(t_29,regi,"%cm_GDPscen%",in)
/p29_efficiency_growth(t2,regi,"%cm_GDPscen%",in);
);
option p29_efficiency_growth:4:3:1;
display "after long term efficiencies", pm_cesdata, p29_efficiency_growth;
***_______________________ COMPLEMENTARY CONSTRAINTS _____________________________
*** Compute the coefficients for the complementarity constraints
*** FIXME: In case in_complements are in beyond, quantity data is needed for
*** the assignment below
loop (complements_ref(in, in2),
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in2,"compl_coef")$( (NOT in_putty(in2)) OR ppfIO_putty(in2) )
= pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"quantity");
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in2,"compl_coef")$( in_putty(in2) AND (NOT ppfIO_putty(in2)) )
= pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity")
/ pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in2,"quantity");
);
***_______________________ END COMPLEMENTARY CONSTRAINTS _____________________________
*** All efficiences after t_29_last are set to their t_29_last values. This is done in order to avoid xi negative in the latest periods. Should not be necessary to split pre and post-t_29_last with reasonable FE pathways
loop (t_29_last,
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"effgr")$(t.val gt pm_ttot_val(t_29_last)) = pm_cesdata(t_29_last,regi,in,"effgr");
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"eff")$(t.val gt pm_ttot_val(t_29_last)) = pm_cesdata(t_29_last,regi,in,"eff");
pm_cesdata(t,regi_dyn29(regi),in,"xi")$(t.val gt pm_ttot_val(t_29_last)) = pm_cesdata(t_29_last,regi,in,"xi");
);
***_______________________ REPORTING FOR THE ELASTICITIES OF SUBSTITUTION_______________
*** it has been separated from the esubs model results since the PDF reporting needs the CES efficiencies after 2015 as well
put capital_unit;
loop (regi_dyn29(regi),
loop ((out,in,in2,t)$((pm_cesdata_sigma(t,out) eq -1)
AND ( cesOut2cesIn(out,in) AND cesOut2cesIn2(out,in2))
AND ( ppfKap(in) AND ( NOT ppfKap(in2)))
AND (sameAs(t, "2015") OR sameAs(t, "2050") OR sameAs(t, "2100"))) ,
if ( sameAs(t,"2015"),
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" ,"2015", out.tl , "output_scale", regi.tl, p29_output_estimation(regi,out) /;
);
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, out.tl , "quantity", regi.tl, ( pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"quantity") $ ( NOT ipf_putty(out)) + pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,out,"quantity") $ ( ipf_putty(out))) /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "quantity", regi.tl, ( pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"quantity") $ ( NOT ipf_putty(out)) + pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity") $ ( ipf_putty(out))) /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%", "remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "quantity", regi.tl, ( pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"quantity") $ ( NOT ipf_putty(out)) + pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in2,"quantity") $ ( ipf_putty(out))) /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "eff", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"eff") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "eff", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"eff") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "effGr", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"effGr") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "effGr", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"effGr") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "xi", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"xi") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "xi", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"xi") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in.tl , "price", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"price") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl, in2.tl , "price", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,in2,"price") /;
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%","remind" , t.tl,out.tl , "rho", regi.tl, pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho") /;
);
loop ((index_Nr,in)$p29_capitalUnitProjections(regi, in, index_Nr),
put "%c_CES_calibration_iteration%",index_Nr.tl, "2015", in.tl , "quantity", regi.tl, p29_capitalUnitProjections(regi,in,index_Nr) /;
);
);
putclose;
***_____________________________ END OF ESUBS REPORTING ________________________________________
***_____________________________ START OF CONSISTENCY CHECKS ________________________________________
*** check technological consistency of the CES tree.
p29_test_CES_recursive(t_29,regi,in) = 0;
p29_test_CES_recursive(t_29hist,regi_dyn29,ppf(in))
= pm_cesdata(t_29hist,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity");
p29_test_CES_recursive(t_29,regi_dyn29,ppf_29(in))$( NOT ppf_putty(in))
= pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity");
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t_29,regi_dyn29,ppf_29(in))$( ppf_putty(in) )
= pm_cesdata_putty(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity");
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t_29hist,regi_dyn29,ppf_putty(in))$( NOT ppf_29(in) )
= pm_cesdata_putty(t_29hist,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity");
***p29_test_CES_recursive(t0,regi_dyn29,ppfIO_putty(in)) = (pm_cesdata(t0,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity") - pm_cesdata_putty(t0,regi_dyn29,in,"quantity") )
*** / (1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,in));
display "consistency beyond 1", p29_test_CES_recursive, p29_test_CES_putty_recursive;
*** test for the first period, where beyond_calib is also taken into account
loop ((cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf(out), regi_dyn29(regi), t_29hist(t)),
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi,out)$( ipf_putty(out))
=
sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"xi")
* (
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"eff")
* pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"effGr")
* ( p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi,in)
)
)
** pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho")
)
** (1 / pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho"))
;
p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,out)$( NOT ipf_putty(out))
=
sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"xi")
* (
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"eff")
* pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"effGr")
* (p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,in)
)
)
** pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho")
)
** (1 / pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho"))
;
p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,out)$ (t0(t) AND ppfIO_putty(out) ) = !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi,out) / pm_delta_kap(regi,out);
p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)$ (( NOT t0(t)) AND ppfIO_putty(out) )
= !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
p29_test_CES_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t,regi_dyn29,out) * p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t,regi_dyn29,out) * p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)
;
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)$ (( NOT t0(t)) AND ppf_putty(out) )
= !!compute the delta for factors that are ipf in the CES and ppf in the putty
1 /pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t,regi_dyn29,out) * (p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)
- p29_test_CES_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t)
- pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t,regi_dyn29,out) * p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)
)
;
;
$ontext
Because the first putty value is now derived from putty_paths, they are also initialized with pm_cesdata_putty in the check.
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi,out)$ ppf_putty(out) = !!compute the delta for factors that are ipf in the CES and ppf in the putty
p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,out)
- p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,out)*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi,out));
$offtext
);
display "consistency beyond 2", p29_test_CES_recursive, p29_test_CES_putty_recursive;
*** test for the other periods, and restrict to in_29
loop ((cesRev2cesIO(counter,out),ipf_29(out), regi_dyn29(regi), t_29(t))$( NOT t_29hist(t)),
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi,out)$( ipf_putty(out))
=
sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"xi")
* (
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"eff")
* pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"effGr")
* ( p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi,in)
)
)
** pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho")
)
** (1 / pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho"))
;
p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,out)$( NOT ipf_putty(out))
=
sum(cesOut2cesIn(out,in),
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"xi")
* (
pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"eff")
* pm_cesdata(t,regi,in,"effGr")
* (p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi,in)
)
)
** pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho")
)
** (1 / pm_cesdata(t,regi,out,"rho"))
;
p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)$ ppfIO_putty(out)
= !!compute the total for factors that are ppf in the CES and ipf in the putty
p29_test_CES_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t,regi_dyn29,out) * p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)
+ pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t,regi_dyn29,out) * p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)
;
p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)$ ppf_putty(out)
= !!compute the delta for factors that are ipf in the CES and ppf in the putty
1 /pm_cumDeprecFactor_new(t,regi_dyn29,out)
* (p29_test_CES_recursive(t,regi_dyn29,out)
- p29_test_CES_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)*(1- pm_delta_kap(regi_dyn29,out))**pm_dt(t)
- pm_cumDeprecFactor_old(t,regi_dyn29,out) * p29_test_CES_putty_recursive(t-1,regi_dyn29,out)
)
;
);
display "consistency beyond 3", p29_test_CES_recursive, p29_test_CES_putty_recursive;
option p29_test_CES_recursive:8;
display "check technological consistency beyond calibration", pm_cesdata, p29_test_CES_recursive;
loop ((regi_dyn29,t_29),
if ( ((card(putty_compute_in) eq 0) AND abs( p29_test_CES_recursive(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco")
- pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity"))
gt 1e-6)
OR
((card(putty_compute_in) gt 0) AND abs( p29_test_CES_recursive(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco")
- pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity"))
gt 1e-2),
put logfile;
put "consistency error failed for ", regi_dyn29.tl, " , ", t_29.tl /;
put p29_test_CES_recursive.tn(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco"), " = ", p29_test_CES_recursive(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco") /;
put pm_cesdata.tn(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity"), " = ", pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,"inco","quantity") /;
putclose logfile;
abort "something wrong with the consistency of pm_cesdata, see logfile";
);
);
sm_tmp = 0;
loop ( (regi_dyn29, t_29, in) $ ( NOT sameAs(in, "inco")),
*** BS 2019-05-28: changed eps -> 1e-10 (MP bugfix)
if (pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"effGr") lt 1e-10,
put logfile;
put pm_cesdata.tn(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"effGr"), " = ", pm_cesdata(t_29,regi_dyn29,in,"effGr") /;
putclose logfile;
sm_tmp = 1;
);
if(sm_tmp eq 1,
abort "some efficiency growth parameters are too low. See logfile for more details";
);
);
***_____________________________ END OF CONSISTENCY CHECKS ________________________________________
***_____________________________ END OF CONSISTENCY CHECKS ________________________________________
*** Add information on ppf_putty quantities which are not in ppf_29
if (%c_CES_calibration_iteration% eq 1, !! first CES calibration iteration
put file_CES_calibration;
loop ((t,regi_dyn29(regi),in)$(( NOT ppf_29(in)) AND ppf_putty(in)),
put "%c_expname%", "target", t.tl, regi.tl, "quantity_putty", in.tl;
put pm_cesdata_putty(t,regi,in,"quantity") /;
);
putclose file_CES_calibration;
);
$ONorder
*** EOF ./modules/29_CES_parameters/calibrate/preloop.gms