Commit 685a858d authored by Mahé Perrette's avatar Mahé Perrette
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* Afghanistan ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AFG value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Afghanistan’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Afghanistan’s population), Afghanistan ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AFG value: position temperature:2). * Afghanistan ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AFG value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Afghanistan’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Afghanistan’s population), Afghanistan ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AFG value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 12200 km<sup>2</sup> larger (2.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 6000 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of Afghanistan’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.4 million (1.1% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.2 million (0.7% of Afghanistan’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 12200 km<sup>2</sup> larger (2.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 6000 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of Afghanistan’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.4 million (1.1% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.2 million (0.7% of Afghanistan’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 24000 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 4.4% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Afghanistan’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 1.7 million, to 2.1% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 24000 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 4.4% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Afghanistan’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 1.7 million, to 2.1% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 80500 km<sup>2</sup> (12.3% of the national land area) and reach 13.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 11.2% of Afghanistan’s population, and increase by 11.0 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 80500 km<sup>2</sup> (12.3% of the land area) and reach 13.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 11.2% of Afghanistan’s population, and increase by 11.0 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Afghanistan is ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Afghanistan is
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.9% of Afghanistan’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.9% of Afghanistan’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Afghanistan’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 12200 km<sup>2</sup> (1.9% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.3% to 13.3% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Afghanistan’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 24000 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 3.7% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 4.4% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 1900 to 86500 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Afghanistan’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 12200 km<sup>2</sup> (1.9% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.3% to 13.3% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Afghanistan’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 24000 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 3.7% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 4.4% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 1900 to 86500 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 64200 km<sup>2</sup> (9.8% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 16800 km<sup>2</sup> (9.8% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 31600 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 26100 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 64200 km<sup>2</sup> (9.8% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 16800 km<sup>2</sup> (9.8% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 31600 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 26100 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Afghanistan is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AFG value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Afghanistan’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AFG value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Afghanistan is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AFG value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Afghanistan’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AFG value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Angola ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AGO value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Angola’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Angola’s population), Angola ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AGO value: position temperature:2). * Angola ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AGO value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Angola’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Angola’s population), Angola ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AGO value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 6800 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 4100 km<sup>2</sup> (0.3% of Angola’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.2% of Angola’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 6800 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 4100 km<sup>2</sup> (0.3% of Angola’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.2% of Angola’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 12000 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0.6% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Angola’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.1% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 12000 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0.6% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Angola’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.1% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 20200 km<sup>2</sup> (1.6% of the national land area) and reach 1.8% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0.4% of Angola’s population, and increase by 0.3 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 20200 km<sup>2</sup> (1.6% of the land area) and reach 1.8% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0.4% of Angola’s population, and increase by 0.3 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Angola is affec ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Angola is affec
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.3% of Angola’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.3% of Angola’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Angola’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 6800 km<sup>2</sup> (0.5% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from -0.1% to 12.6% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Angola’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 12000 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 1.0% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0.6% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from -800 to 157300 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Angola’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 6800 km<sup>2</sup> (0.5% of the land area). The level of change ranges from -0.1% to 12.6% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Angola’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 12000 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 1.0% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0.6% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from -800 to 157300 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 14300 km<sup>2</sup> (1.1% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 14000 km<sup>2</sup> (1.1% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 4700 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 18400 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 14300 km<sup>2</sup> (1.1% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 14000 km<sup>2</sup> (1.1% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 4700 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 18400 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Angola is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AGO value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Angola’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AGO value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Angola is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AGO value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Angola’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AGO value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Albania ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ALB value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Albania’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Albania’s population), Albania ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ALB value: position temperature:2). * Albania ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ALB value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Albania’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Albania’s population), Albania ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ALB value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 100 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of Albania’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0% of Albania’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 100 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of Albania’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0% of Albania’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0.1% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Albania’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.4 million, to 0.0% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0.1% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Albania’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.4 million, to 0.0% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 1300 km<sup>2</sup> (4.9% of the national land area) and reach 2.5% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 1.5% of Albania’s population, and increase by 2.6 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 1300 km<sup>2</sup> (4.9% of the land area) and reach 2.5% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 1.5% of Albania’s population, and increase by 2.6 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Albania is affe ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Albania is affe
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of Albania’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of Albania’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Albania’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 100 km<sup>2</sup> (0.2% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 7.0% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Albania’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.9% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0.1% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 1900 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Albania’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 100 km<sup>2</sup> (0.2% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 7.0% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Albania’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.9% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0.1% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 1900 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 300 km<sup>2</sup> (1.2% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 100 km<sup>2</sup> (1.2% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 100 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 300 km<sup>2</sup> (1.2% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 100 km<sup>2</sup> (1.2% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 100 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Albania is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ALB value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Albania’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ALB value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Albania is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ALB value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Albania’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ALB value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* United Arab Emirates ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARE value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of United Arab Emirates’ land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of United Arab Emirates’ population), United Arab Emirates ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ARE value: position temperature:2). * United Arab Emirates ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARE value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of United Arab Emirates’ land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of United Arab Emirates’ population), United Arab Emirates ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ARE value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 700 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 10200 km<sup>2</sup> (14.3% of United Arab Emirates’ land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.5 million (5.5% of United Arab Emirates’ population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 700 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 10200 km<sup>2</sup> (14.3% of United Arab Emirates’ land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.5 million (5.5% of United Arab Emirates’ population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 1200 km<sup>2</sup> (1.6% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 5.3% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, United Arab Emirates’ population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.8% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 1200 km<sup>2</sup> (1.6% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 5.3% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, United Arab Emirates’ population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.8% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 100 km<sup>2</sup> (0.1% of the national land area) and reach 0.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0.2% of United Arab Emirates’ population, and increase by 0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 100 km<sup>2</sup> (0.1% of the land area) and reach 0.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0.2% of United Arab Emirates’ population, and increase by 0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly United Arab Emi ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly United Arab Emi
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 14.3% of United Arab Emirates’ land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 14.3% of United Arab Emirates’ land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming United Arab Emirates’ annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 700 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 35.3% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, United Arab Emirates’ annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 1200 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 1.6% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 5.3% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 25100 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming United Arab Emirates’ annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 700 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 35.3% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, United Arab Emirates’ annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 1200 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 1.6% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 5.3% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 25100 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 700 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 500 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 300 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 700 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 500 km<sup>2</sup> (0.9% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 300 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
United Arab Emirates is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARE value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), United Arab Emirates’ ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ARE value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). United Arab Emirates is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARE value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), United Arab Emirates’ ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ARE value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Argentina ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARG value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Argentina’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Argentina’s population), Argentina ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ARG value: position temperature:2). * Argentina ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARG value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Argentina’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Argentina’s population), Argentina ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ARG value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 28700 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 18600 km<sup>2</sup> (0.7% of Argentina’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.1 million (0.1% of Argentina’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 28700 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 18600 km<sup>2</sup> (0.7% of Argentina’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.1 million (0.1% of Argentina’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 59900 km<sup>2</sup> (2.2% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 5.4% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Argentina’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.1% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 59900 km<sup>2</sup> (2.2% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 5.4% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Argentina’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.1% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 182400 km<sup>2</sup> (6.7% of the national land area) and reach 9.1% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0.3% of Argentina’s population, and increase by 0.2 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 182400 km<sup>2</sup> (6.7% of the land area) and reach 9.1% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0.3% of Argentina’s population, and increase by 0.2 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Argentina is af ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Argentina is af
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.7% of Argentina’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.7% of Argentina’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Argentina’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 28700 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.3% to 7.9% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Argentina’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 59900 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.2% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 5.4% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 7500 to 217500 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Argentina’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 28700 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.3% to 7.9% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Argentina’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 59900 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.2% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 5.4% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 7500 to 217500 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 104400 km<sup>2</sup> (3.8% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 29900 km<sup>2</sup> (3.8% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 61800 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 56200 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 104400 km<sup>2</sup> (3.8% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 29900 km<sup>2</sup> (3.8% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 61800 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 56200 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Argentina is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARG value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Argentina’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ARG value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Argentina is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARG value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Argentina’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ARG value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Armenia ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARM value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Armenia’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Armenia’s population), Armenia ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ARM value: position temperature:2). * Armenia ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARM value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Armenia’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Armenia’s population), Armenia ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ARM value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 400 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 400 km<sup>2</sup> (1.4% of Armenia’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.4% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.9% of Armenia’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 400 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 400 km<sup>2</sup> (1.4% of Armenia’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.4% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.9% of Armenia’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 600 km<sup>2</sup> (2.2% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 6.9% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Armenia’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.5 million, to 1.6% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 600 km<sup>2</sup> (2.2% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 6.9% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Armenia’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.5 million, to 1.6% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 2800 km<sup>2</sup> (10.0% of the national land area) and reach 19.6% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 5.9% of Armenia’s population, and increase by 2.9 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 2800 km<sup>2</sup> (10.0% of the land area) and reach 19.6% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 5.9% of Armenia’s population, and increase by 2.9 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Armenia is affe ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Armenia is affe
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 1.4% of Armenia’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 1.4% of Armenia’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Armenia’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 400 km<sup>2</sup> (1.5% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from -0.1% to 22.9% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Armenia’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 600 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.2% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 6.9% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 6500 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Armenia’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 400 km<sup>2</sup> (1.5% of the land area). The level of change ranges from -0.1% to 22.9% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Armenia’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 600 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.2% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 6.9% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 6500 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 1500 km<sup>2</sup> (5.4% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 100 km<sup>2</sup> (5.4% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 600 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 600 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 1500 km<sup>2</sup> (5.4% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 100 km<sup>2</sup> (5.4% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 600 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 600 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Armenia is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARM value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Armenia’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ARM value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Armenia is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ARM value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Armenia’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ARM value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* American Samoa ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ASM value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of American Samoa’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of American Samoa’s population), American Samoa ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ASM value: position temperature:2). * American Samoa ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ASM value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of American Samoa’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of American Samoa’s population), American Samoa ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ASM value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of American Samoa’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0% of American Samoa’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of American Samoa’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0% of American Samoa’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, American Samoa’s population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, American Samoa’s population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (-0.3% of the national land area) and reach 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of American Samoa’s population, and decrease by -0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (-0.3% of the land area) and reach 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of American Samoa’s population, and decrease by -0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly American Samoa ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly American Samoa
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of American Samoa’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of American Samoa’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming American Samoa’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.4% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from -0.3% to 4.7% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, American Samoa’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 0 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming American Samoa’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.4% of the land area). The level of change ranges from -0.3% to 4.7% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, American Samoa’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 0 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
American Samoa is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ASM value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), American Samoa’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ASM value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). American Samoa is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ASM value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), American Samoa’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ASM value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Antarctica ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATA value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Antarctica’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Antarctica’s population), Antarctica ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ATA value: position temperature:2). * Antarctica ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATA value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Antarctica’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Antarctica’s population), Antarctica ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ATA value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> smaller (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of Antarctica’s land area). The number of people exposed is nan million (0.0% of the national population) smaller than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was nan million (0% of Antarctica’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> smaller (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of Antarctica’s land area). The number of people exposed is nan million (0.0% of the population) smaller than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was nan million (0% of Antarctica’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Antarctica’s population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Antarctica’s population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) and reach 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of Antarctica’s population, and decrease by 0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) and reach 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of Antarctica’s population, and decrease by 0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Antarctica is a ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Antarctica is a
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of Antarctica’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of Antarctica’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Antarctica’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already smaller and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 0.0% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Antarctica’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 0 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Antarctica’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already smaller and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 0.0% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Antarctica’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 0 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Antarctica is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATA value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Antarctica’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ATA value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Antarctica is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATA value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Antarctica’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ATA value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* French Southern and Antarctica Lands ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATF value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population), French Southern and Antarctica Lands ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ATF value: position temperature:2). * French Southern and Antarctica Lands ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATF value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population), French Southern and Antarctica Lands ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_ATF value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> smaller (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.1% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ land area). The number of people exposed is nan million (0.0% of the national population) smaller than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was nan million (0% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> smaller (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.1% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ land area). The number of people exposed is nan million (0.0% of the population) smaller than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was nan million (0% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) and reach 0.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population, and decrease by 0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) and reach 0.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ population, and decrease by 0.0 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly French Southern ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly French Southern
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.1% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.1% of French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already smaller and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from -0.6% to 0.5% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 0 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already smaller and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area). The level of change ranges from -0.6% to 0.5% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 0 to 0 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
French Southern and Antarctica Lands is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATF value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ATF value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). French Southern and Antarctica Lands is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_ATF value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), French Southern and Antarctica Lands’ ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_ATF value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Australia ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUS value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Australia’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Australia’s population), Australia ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AUS value: position temperature:2). * Australia ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUS value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Australia’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Australia’s population), Australia ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AUS value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 35900 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 78600 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of Australia’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.1% of Australia’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 35900 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 78600 km<sup>2</sup> (1.0% of Australia’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.1% of Australia’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 167500 km<sup>2</sup> (2.2% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 8.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Australia’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.3 million, to 1.3% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 167500 km<sup>2</sup> (2.2% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 8.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Australia’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.3 million, to 1.3% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 446800 km<sup>2</sup> (5.8% of the national land area) and reach 9.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 2.5% of Australia’s population, and increase by 1.2 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 446800 km<sup>2</sup> (5.8% of the land area) and reach 9.2% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 2.5% of Australia’s population, and increase by 1.2 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Australia is af ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Australia is af
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 1.0% of Australia’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 1.0% of Australia’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Australia’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 35900 km<sup>2</sup> (0.5% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 10.0% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Australia’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 167500 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.2% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 8.2% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 600 to 771400 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Australia’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 35900 km<sup>2</sup> (0.5% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.0% to 10.0% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Australia’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 167500 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.2% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 8.2% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 600 to 771400 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 283000 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 222200 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 106700 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 143200 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 283000 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 222200 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 106700 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 143200 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Australia is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUS value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Australia’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AUS value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Australia is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUS value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Australia’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AUS value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Austria ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUT value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Austria’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Austria’s population), Austria ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AUT value: position temperature:2). * Austria ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUT value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Austria’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Austria’s population), Austria ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AUT value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 300 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 400 km<sup>2</sup> (0.5% of Austria’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.3% of Austria’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 300 km<sup>2</sup> larger (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 400 km<sup>2</sup> (0.5% of Austria’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.1% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.3% of Austria’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (0.2% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0.3% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Austria’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.1% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (0.2% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0.3% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Austria’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 0.1 million, to 0.1% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 2300 km<sup>2</sup> (2.8% of the national land area) and reach 2.7% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 1.1% of Austria’s population, and increase by 1.0 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 2300 km<sup>2</sup> (2.8% of the land area) and reach 2.7% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 1.1% of Austria’s population, and increase by 1.0 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Austria is affe ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Austria is affe
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.5% of Austria’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.5% of Austria’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Austria’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 300 km<sup>2</sup> (0.4% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from -0.5% to 7.8% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Austria’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.2% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0.3% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from -400 to 6400 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Austria’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 300 km<sup>2</sup> (0.4% of the land area). The level of change ranges from -0.5% to 7.8% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Austria’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 200 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.2% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0.3% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from -400 to 6400 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 600 km<sup>2</sup> (0.8% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 300 km<sup>2</sup> (0.8% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 400 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 600 km<sup>2</sup> (0.8% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 300 km<sup>2</sup> (0.8% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 0 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 400 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Austria is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUT value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Austria’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AUT value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Austria is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AUT value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Austria’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AUT value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Azerbaijan ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AZE value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Azerbaijan’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Azerbaijan’s population), Azerbaijan ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AZE value: position temperature:2). * Azerbaijan ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AZE value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Azerbaijan’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Azerbaijan’s population), Azerbaijan ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_AZE value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 1000 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 600 km<sup>2</sup> (0.7% of Azerbaijan’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.3% of the national population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.3% of Azerbaijan’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 1000 km<sup>2</sup> larger (1.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 600 km<sup>2</sup> (0.7% of Azerbaijan’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.3% of the population) larger than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0.3% of Azerbaijan’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 2400 km<sup>2</sup> (2.9% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 3.9% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Azerbaijan’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 1.1 million, to 1.6% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would increase by 2400 km<sup>2</sup> (2.9% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 3.9% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Azerbaijan’s population exposed to droughts would increase by 1.1 million, to 1.6% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 9000 km<sup>2</sup> (10.9% of the national land area) and reach 10.9% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 5.0% of Azerbaijan’s population, and increase by 4.4 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would increase by 9000 km<sup>2</sup> (10.9% of the land area) and reach 10.9% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 5.0% of Azerbaijan’s population, and increase by 4.4 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Azerbaijan is a ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Azerbaijan is a
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.7% of Azerbaijan’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0.7% of Azerbaijan’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Azerbaijan’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 1000 km<sup>2</sup> (1.3% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from 0.1% to 13.3% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Azerbaijan’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 2400 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.9% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 3.9% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 100 to 11000 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Azerbaijan’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already larger and amount to 1000 km<sup>2</sup> (1.3% of the land area). The level of change ranges from 0.1% to 13.3% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Azerbaijan’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to increase by 2400 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 2.9% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 3.9% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from 100 to 11000 km<sup>2</sup>.
Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 5300 km<sup>2</sup> (6.5% of the national land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 1300 km<sup>2</sup> (6.5% of the national land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 1300 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 2300 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0. Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) the land area affected by droughts is expected to increase by 5300 km<sup>2</sup> (6.5% of the land area) towards the end of the century (2081-2100). Following the low emission scenario (RCP2.6) the change would only reach 1300 km<sup>2</sup> (6.5% of the land area). By the middle of the century, changes reach 1300 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP2.6 and 2300 km<sup>2</sup> under RCP6.0.
Azerbaijan is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AZE value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Azerbaijan’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AZE value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60). Azerbaijan is the (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_AZE value: position temperature:2) strongest affected by droughts at 2°C of global warming. For the absolute change in land area affected by droughts towards the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario (RCP6.0), Azerbaijan’s ranking is (ranking-value: land-abs-time_AZE value: position time:2081-2100 scenario:rcp60).
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* Burundi ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_BDI value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Burundi’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Burundi’s population), Burundi ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_BDI value: position temperature:2). * Burundi ranks (ranking-value: land-abs-temp_BDI value: position temperature:2) with regards to absolute changes in land area affected by droughts (expressed as % of Burundi’s land area) at 2°C of global warming in comparison to a situation without climate change. For the absolute changes in population exposed to droughts (expressed as % of Burundi’s population), Burundi ranks (ranking-value: pop-abs-temp_BDI value: position temperature:2).
* At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> smaller (0.0% of the national land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of Burundi’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the national population) smaller than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0% of Burundi’s population). * At today’s levels of 1°C of global warming the simulated land area affected is already 0 km<sup>2</sup> smaller (0.0% of the land area) than in a world without climate change where the annual area affected by droughts is 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0% of Burundi’s land area). The number of people exposed is 0.0 million (0.0% of the population) smaller than without climate change where the annual number of people exposed to droughts was 0.0 million (0% of Burundi’s population).
* At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Burundi’s population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the national population. * At 2°C of global warming the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area) compared to a world without climate change, to 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns, Burundi’s population exposed to droughts would decrease by 0.0 million, to 0% of the population.
* Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (-0.1% of the national land area) and reach 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of Burundi’s population, and decrease by -0.1 million compared to a situation without climate change. * Following the higher-emissions scenario (RCP6.0) which can entail over 3°C of global warming by the end of the century (2081-2100) ([Frieler et al. 2017](https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017)) the land area affected by droughts would decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (-0.1% of the land area) and reach 0% of the country’s land area. Assuming present-day population patterns the population exposed would reach 0% of Burundi’s population, and decrease by -0.1 million compared to a situation without climate change.
### How have we got the results? ### How have we got the results?
...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Burundi is affe ...@@ -61,10 +61,10 @@ In the following we describe what we have found and how strongly Burundi is affe
Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of Burundi’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Our definition of “drought” is quite strict, such that, without climate change, only 0% of Burundi’s land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average.
However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Burundi’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already smaller and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the national land area). The level of change ranges from -0.7% to 12.7% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Burundi’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the national land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the national land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from -200 to 3300 km<sup>2</sup>. However, at today’s level of 1°C global warming Burundi’s annual land area affected by droughts is, on average, already smaller and amount to 0 km<sup>2</sup> (0.0% of the land area). The level of change ranges from -0.7% to 12.7% for the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models. At 2°C of global warming, Burundi’s annual land area affected by droughts is projected to decrease by 0 km<sup>2</sup> (i.e. 0.0% of the land area) on average in comparison to a world without climate change. Under these conditions, 0% of the land area would be affected by droughts each year, on average. Across the individual combinations of global hydrological models and global climate models this expected level of change ranges from -200 to 3300 km<sup>2</sup>.