From 14e6315dcf1d6603787b90412bfb1064d445efd0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Robert Pietzcker <pietzcker@pik-potsdam.de>
Date: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 15:58:06 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] bugfix: make sure p_factorRescale_taxCO2_Funneled and
p_factorRescale_taxCO2 always have a value in iterative_target_adj eq 9
---
core/postsolve.gms | 34 ++++++++++++++++++++++------------
1 file changed, 22 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-)
diff --git a/core/postsolve.gms b/core/postsolve.gms
index 97ce15a..e796b66 100644
--- a/core/postsolve.gms
+++ b/core/postsolve.gms
@@ -330,8 +330,8 @@ display p_actualbudgetco2;
if(cm_iterative_target_adj eq 9,
*RP* Update tax levels/ multigasbudget values to reach the peak CO2 budget, with a linear increase afterwards given by cm_taxCO2inc_after_peakBudgYr
-*** The PeakBudgYr is found automatically by the algorithm (within the time window 204-2100)
-
+*** The PeakBudgYr is found automatically by the algorithm (within the time window 2040-2100)
+
p_actualbudgetco2(t) = sum(ttot$(ttot.val < t.val AND ttot.val > 2010), (sum(regi, (vm_emiTe.l(ttot,regi,"co2") + vm_emiCdr.l(ttot,regi,"co2") + vm_emiMac.l(ttot,regi,"co2"))) * sm_c_2_co2 * pm_ts(ttot)))
+ sum(regi, (vm_emiTe.l(t,regi,"co2") + vm_emiCdr.l(t,regi,"co2") + vm_emiMac.l(t,regi,"co2")))*sm_c_2_co2 * (pm_ts(t) * 0.5 + 0.5)
+ sum(regi, (vm_emiTe.l("2010",regi,"co2") + vm_emiCdr.l("2010",regi,"co2") + vm_emiMac.l("2010",regi,"co2")))*sm_c_2_co2 * 2;
@@ -342,7 +342,11 @@ if(cm_iterative_target_adj eq 9,
display s_actualbudgetco2;
display p_actualbudgetco2;
+
if(cm_emiscen eq 9,
+
+*** --------A: calculate the new CO2 price path, the CO2 tax rescale factor----------------------------------------------------------
+
if(o_modelstat eq 2 AND ord(iteration)<cm_iteration_max AND s_actualbudgetco2 > 0 AND abs(c_budgetCO2 - s_actualbudgetco2) ge 2, !!only for optimal iterations, and not after the last one, and only if budget still possitive, and only if target not yet reached
display pm_taxCO2eq;
@@ -356,8 +360,7 @@ if(cm_iterative_target_adj eq 9,
cm_peakBudgYr = 2100;
);
-*** --------new convergence----------------------------------------------------------
-*** calculating the CO2 tax rescale factor
+*** --------A1: for that, calculate the CO2 tax rescale factor---
if(iteration.val lt 10,
p_factorRescale_taxCO2(iteration) = max(0.1, (s_actualbudgetco2/c_budgetCO2) ) ** 3;
@@ -388,29 +391,35 @@ if(cm_iterative_target_adj eq 9,
else !! if(o_modelstat eq 2 AND ord(iteration)<cm_iteration_max AND s_actualbudgetco2 > 0 AND abs(c_budgetCO2 ))
if(s_actualbudgetco2 > 0 or abs(c_budgetCO2 - s_actualbudgetco2) < 2, !! if model was not optimal, or if budget already reached, keep tax constant
- p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi) = p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi); !! nothing changes
+ p_factorRescale_taxCO2(iteration) = 1;
+ p_factorRescale_taxCO2_Funneled(iteration) = 1;
+ p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi) = p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi); !! nothing changes
else
*** if budget has turned negative, reduce CO2 price by 20%
- p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi) = 0.8*p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi);
- pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) = 0.8*pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi);
+ p_factorRescale_taxCO2(iteration) = 0.8;
+ p_factorRescale_taxCO2_Funneled(iteration) = p_factorRescale_taxCO2(iteration);
+
+ p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi) = p_factorRescale_taxCO2(iteration) * p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi);
+ pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) = p_factorRescale_taxCO2(iteration) * pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi);
);
); !! if(o_modelstat eq 2 AND ord(iteration)<cm_iteration_max AND s_actualbudgetco2 > 0 AND abs(c_budgetCO2 - s_actualbudgetco2) ge 2,
display pm_taxCO2eq, p_taxCO2eq_until2150;
-***-----------------------------------------------
-
+*** -------B: checking the peak timing, if cm_peakBudgYr is still correct or needs to be shifted-----------------------
o_diff_to_Budg(iteration) = (c_budgetCO2 - s_actualbudgetco2);
o_totCO2emi_peakBudgYr(iteration) = sum(t$(t.val = cm_peakBudgYr), sum(regi2, vm_emiAll.l(t,regi2,"co2")) );
o_totCO2emi_allYrs(t,iteration) = sum(regi2, vm_emiAll.l(t,regi2,"co2") );
+
+*RP* calculate how fast emissions are changing around the peaking time to get an idea how close it is possible to get to 0 due to the 5(10) year time steps
o_change_totCO2emi_peakBudgYr(iteration) = sum(ttot$(ttot.val = cm_peakBudgYr), (o_totCO2emi_allYrs(ttot-1,iteration) - o_totCO2emi_allYrs(ttot+1,iteration) )/4 ); !! Only gives a tolerance range, exact value not important. Division by 4 somewhat arbitrary - could be 3 or 5 as well.
display cm_peakBudgYr, o_diff_to_Budg, o_peakBudgYr_Itr, o_totCO2emi_allYrs, o_totCO2emi_peakBudgYr, o_change_totCO2emi_peakBudgYr;
-*** check if cm_peakBudgYr is correct: if global emissions are already negative, move cm_peakBudgYr forward
+*** ----B1: check if cm_peakBudgYr should be shifted left or right:
if( abs(o_diff_to_Budg(iteration)) < 20, !! only think about shifting peakBudgYr if the budget is close enough to target budget
display "close enough to target budget to check timing of peak year";
loop(ttot$(ttot.val = cm_peakBudgYr), !! look at the peak timing
@@ -432,7 +441,7 @@ if(cm_iterative_target_adj eq 9,
);
);
- else !! don't do anything if the peakBudgYr is already at the corner values (2040, 2100) or if the emissions in the peakBudgYr are close to 0
+ else !! don't do anything if the peakBudgYr is already at the corner values (2040, 2100) or if the emissions in the peakBudgYr are close enough to 0 (within the range of +/- o_change_totCO2emi_peakBudgYr)
o_peakBudgYr_Itr(iteration+1) = o_peakBudgYr_Itr(iteration)
);
);
@@ -442,7 +451,8 @@ if(cm_iterative_target_adj eq 9,
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val le cm_peakBudgYr) = p_taxCO2eq_until2150(t,regi); !! until peakBudgYr, take the contiuous price trajectory
- if (o_delay_increase_peakBudgYear(iteration) = 1, !! if there was a flip-floping in the previous iterations, try to solve this
+*** -----B2: if there was a flip-floping of cm_peakBudgYr in the previous iterations, try to overome this by adjusting the CO2 price path after the peaking year
+ if (o_delay_increase_peakBudgYear(iteration) = 1,
display "not shifting peakBudgYr right, instead adjusting CO2 price for following year";
loop(ttot$(ttot.val eq cm_peakBudgYr), !! set ttot to the current peakBudgYr
loop(t2$(t2.val eq pm_ttot_val(ttot+1)), !! set t2 to the following time step
--
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